Will Churches Be Prepared If Pandemic Strikes America?

A mathematical analysis has confirmed that H5N1 avian influenza spread from person-to-person in Indonesia in April, U.S. researchers reported on August 28, 2007. It is no longer a question if a possible bird flu plague is a hoax perpetrated by governments or pharmaceutical companies, but is a reality that may affect every person on Earth.

The analysis means the virus has mutated to the degree that it now has the potential to race around the world in a matter of weeks, killing millions.

According to Reuters News Service, Ira Longini and colleagues at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle said, "It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control."

"The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time, we might not be so lucky," he added.

The researchers estimate the rate of one infected person passing bird flu to another in Indonesia is currently 29 percent. That's similar to the spread of seasonal flu in the United States.

Confusion About How Bird Flu Spreads

This week there was also news that the Bird Flu had reached Germany. Health officials there killed 160,000 geese in an attempt to stop the spread of the virus.

When people hear news reports about such events, they are often confused about what it means. Even though hundreds of millions of wild birds have died from Avian Influenza that has not generally affected humans.

It becomes a problem when wild birds infect domestic chickens, ducks and geese which live in close proximity to humans. In third-world countries, where people share the same living space with their poultry, they can catch the influenza directly from the birds. There have been hundreds of deaths from this kind of bird-to-human transmission.

What has always concerned health officials is that the virus could mutate and become easily transmittable between humans, and that has now happened according to the research by Dr. Longini and his team.
When the virus spreads beyond the second generation, the virus will race around the world and millions could die in just a few weeks. The last time this happened was during the “Spanish Flu” epidemic of 1918 that killed an estimated 100 million people worldwide. Health officials estimate that 28% of the U.S. population got sick with this virulent flu virus in 1918, and up to 675,000 people died of it that year.

The H5N1 virus the world is now dealing with is a much more virulent virus than the one that spread in 1918, so the death rate is expected to be much higher. Some healthcare researchers say it could kill 1.5 billion people worldwide in a matter of months, but even that number could be low. British healthcare professionals believe there could be up to 700,000 deaths in their country alone.

Do Local Churches Have a Role to Play in a Pandemic?

Unfortunately, many Christians believe that there will be some “magic bullet” to save us at the last moment. They read about pharmaceutical “break-through,” but most are drug company pipe dreams. Even if the drugs they talk about were tested, millions would die before they could be distributed.

Many people think the drug TamiFlu will save them since they have read that governments around the world are stockpiling the drug. TamiFlu is not a panacea, however.

The U.S. has ordered 48 million doses of TamiFlu, only enough for 14% of the population. It is expected that the average person in the U.S. will not have access to it, since doses will go first to government officials, healthcare workers, the military, the police and other essential service workers.

When we did the research for our documentary film, “The Bird Flu Plague: A Survival Strategy for Families & Churches,” we quickly realized that “the government can’t protect us and science can’t save us,” and that is the focus of our preparedness DVD.

Local churches can exercise leadership by preparing for a possible Bird Flu plague, and to alleviate suffering if it comes. Sadly, most churches will wait too long to act, and once it has been announced that the Bird Flu has reached our shores, panic will ensue and the opportunity for preparation will be lost.

Christians should be preparing now. We have a long tradition of helping others during crisis times. For example, a Christian man, John of Ephesus (ca. 430-594AD), shared his personal suffering from a pandemic.

John recorded that people feared leaving their homes, and when they did they carried identification lest they fall ill in the streets, die, and be buried without word reaching their families.

John of Ephesus, along with later Christian writers, believed pandemics were a method that God used to call people to repentance, and we agree with that.

The research by Dr. Longini and his colleagues has proven that the Bird Flu is now transmittable between humans.

The World Health Organization may raise the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 4 or 5 as a result. When it reaches Phase 6 it will mean that there is a sustained transmission of the virus in the general population and millions will die before they can get any help at all.

Article Source: http://www.religionarticlelibrary.com

Author Donald L. Hughes offers a free e-book, "Church Preparedness Guide: Steps to Prepare for a Possible Influenza Pandemic”" at www.BirdFluPlague.com.

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